The new chic, cosmopolitan thing is apparently to learn-or attempt to learn-Mandarin Chinese as a second language. This is because, as we’ve all been told repeatedly, China is going to replace the US as the great world economic power, and therefore the business language of the future is Chinese, rather than English.

Of course, Mandarin is an exceedingly difficult language to learn, especially for conversational purposes. The meaning of words can be changed by minor alterations in inflection. It takes years to learn to speak it passably, and even then it’s likely to be a pidgin version of the language. This means that for most people who do not grow up speaking Chinese, trying to learn it in adulthood is a waste of time because it’s practically impossible without devoting your life to it. In any case, there’s no reason to assume that English will be supplanted as the international business language.

Why? Because of network externalities. Basically, English will remain the predominant language of international business for the foreseeable because it’s already the predominant language of international business. If a Chinese businessman wants to do business with someone outside of China, the chances that the persons with whom he wishes to do business speak Chinese is very low. By contrast, there’s a very good chance that they speak English, or have someone in their employ who speaks English, as a first or second language. Thus, the Chinese person has much more pressure on him to learn English, or to at least hire someone who knows English. Of course, this tendency further reinforces the tendency for English to be a dominant business language, since a significant proportion of Chinese people (and a very large proportion of their business class) will speak English. Network externalities tend to be self-reinforcing in this way. Unless China conquers the world and bends all nations unto its will, the likelihood that learning Mandarin Chinese will be a prerequisite for getting ahead in the near future is very low.

That said, the US is indeed becoming a second-rate nation, largely because we’re importing a bunch of third-rate people who contribute to little except overall welfare dependency and a high crime rate. So while it’s a waste of time to learn Mandarin, it’s also delusional to believe that this in any way mitigates the decline of the United States in particular or the west in general.